Early hemoglobin levels after kidney transplantation predict clinical outcomes

Article information

Korean J Nephrol. 2026;.j.krcp.25.215
Publication date (electronic) : 2026 March 6
doi : https://doi.org/10.23876/j.krcp.25.215
1Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, Kyungpook National University Hospital, School of Medicine, Kyungpook National University, Daegu, Republic of Korea
2Department of Surgery, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
3Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, Konkuk University School of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
4Department of Surgery, Ajou University School of Medicine, Suwon, Republic of Korea
5Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
6Department of Surgery, Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea
7Department of Statistics, College of Natural Sciences, Kyungpook National University, Daegu, Republic of Korea
Correspondence: Jeong-Hoon Lim Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Kyungpook National University, 130 Dongdeok-ro, Jung-gu, Daegu 41944, Republic of Korea. E-mail: jh-lim@knu.ac.kr
Jang-Hee Cho Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Kyungpook National University, 130 Dongdeok-ro, Daegu, 41944, Republic of Korea. E-mail: jh-cho@knu.ac.kr
*Min-Gyu Kim and You Hyun Jeon contributed equally to this study as co-first authors.†Jeong-Hoon Lim and Jang-Hee Cho contributed equally to this study as co-corresponding authors.‡A list of authors and their affiliations is provided in the Additional information.
Received 2025 July 9; Revised 2025 December 1; Accepted 2025 December 19.

Abstract

Background

The impact of early hemoglobin levels following kidney transplantation (KT) on long-term outcomes remains unclear. This study evaluates the association between early posttransplant hemoglobin levels and clinical outcomes.

Methods

A total of 7,501 kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) from a nationwide cohort were included. Hemoglobin levels at 6 months post-KT were analyzed. KTRs were categorized into five hemoglobin groups: <10, 10 to <11, 11 to <12, 12 to <13 (reference group), and ≥13 g/dL. The primary outcome was a composite of cardiovascular events, graft loss, and all-cause mortality. Multivariable Cox regression was employed to assess the relationship between hemoglobin levels and the composite outcome.

Results

The cohort had a mean age of 49.6 ± 11.6 years, and 60.4% were male. The incidence of the composite outcome and its individual components was highest among KTRs with hemoglobin levels <10 g/dL. Hemoglobin levels <10 g/dL were associated with a significantly increased risk of the composite outcome (hazard ratio [HR], 3.16; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.05–4.87; p < 0.001) and were identified as an independent risk factor for each component. Conversely, hemoglobin levels ≥13 g/dL were associated with improved survival (HR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.22–0.90; p = 0.02). Subgroup analyses confirmed that hemoglobin levels <10 g/dL consistently increased the risk of the composite outcome.

Conclusion

Posttransplant anemia with hemoglobin levels <10 g/dL showed a significant association with an increased risk of the composite outcome. Conversely, hemoglobin levels ≥13 g/dL were linked to better patient survival.

Introduction

Kidney transplantation (KT) is widely regarded as the gold-standard treatment for end-stage kidney disease, offering superior outcomes in survival and quality of life compared to dialysis [1,2]. Despite these advantages, kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) face a heightened risk of mortality and cardiovascular disease relative to the general population [35]. Among the complications of KT, posttransplant anemia is a notable concern. Defined as a reduction in hemoglobin (Hb) levels, posttransplant anemia is a prevalent issue during the early posttransplant period [5,6] and has been associated with adverse clinical outcomes, including cardiovascular complications, mortality, and graft function decline [5,7,8].

The optimal management of posttransplant anemia, including the determination of target Hb levels, remains unclear. This uncertainty is particularly apparent in the early posttransplant period, when Hb levels exhibit significant variability. While previous studies have investigated the impact of posttransplant anemia on KTR outcomes, several limitations hinder the generalizability of their findings. Some studies did not stratify Hb levels with sufficient granularity [9,10], whereas others, conducted in earlier eras, may not reflect the contemporary KTR population [11,12]. Additionally, many studies were constrained by small sample sizes, raising concerns about the influence of confounding factors on their conclusions [13,14].

In light of these uncertainties and limitations, the present study aims to clarify the relationship between early posttransplant Hb levels and long-term outcomes in a comprehensive, nationwide cohort of KTRs. Specifically, we hypothesized that lower Hb levels during the early posttransplant period could adversely affect clinical outcomes, including cardiovascular events, mortality, and graft function. Additionally, we evaluated whether elevated Hb levels in this critical period are safe and associated with a favorable long-term prognosis for KTRs.

Methods

Study population and design

This study was a retrospective analysis based on prospective Korean Organ Transplantation Registry (KOTRY), a comprehensive database that records information on organ transplant recipients in Korea. From this registry, we identified 9,199 adults aged 19 years and older who underwent KT between May 2014 and December 2021. After excluding 1,649 KTRs with missing Hb values at 6 months post-KT and 49 patients who experienced composite events within 6 months after KT. A total of 7,501 participants were included in the final analysis. Data extracted from the KOTRY database included demographic characteristics, comorbid conditions, baseline and follow-up laboratory findings, immunosuppressant use, and posttransplant events such as mortality, cardiovascular events, graft loss, and donor information. The tumor variable in the baseline characteristics was defined as a history of malignant neoplasm (including in situ neoplasm) diagnosed prior to KT. Participants were categorized into five groups based on Hb levels at 6 months post-KT: <10, 10 to <11, 11 to <12, 12 to <13 (reference group), and ≥13 g/dL (Fig. 1). The Hb range of 12 to <13 g/dL was selected as the reference group in alignment with the KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes) guidelines, which define anemia as Hb levels below 13 g/dL for men and below 12 g/dL for women [15].

Figure 1.

Flowchart of kidney transplant recipients stratified into five groups based on hemoglobin (Hb) levels (g/dL).

KOTRY, Korean Organ Transplantation Registry; KT, kidney transplantationt.

Study outcomes

The primary outcome of this study was a composite endpoint comprising cardiovascular events, graft loss, and all-cause mortality. Cardiovascular events were defined as the occurrence of new-onset acute myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, congestive heart failure, valvular heart disease, arrhythmias, or aortic dissection during the follow-up period. Graft loss was defined as the initiation of dialysis lasting more than 3 months, the need for re-transplantation, or death while the graft remained functional.

Statistical analyses

Patient characteristics and the incidence of study outcomes were stratified by Hb levels at 6 months post-KT. Continuous variables were summarized as mean ± standard deviation, while categorical variables were presented as frequencies and percentages. The chi-square test was applied to assess differences in categorical variables, and analysis of variance was used for continuous variables. Crude event proportions across Hb groups were compared using the chi-square test. Restricted cubic spline regression models were employed to explore the association between Hb levels (as a continuous variable) and study outcomes. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the cumulative incidence of study outcomes, with group differences evaluated using the log-rank test. To minimize survivor bias, both the Cox regression analyses and the Fine-Gray competing risk analyses were performed using a landmark design, in which the 6-month posttransplant Hb measurement served as the baseline, and follow-up for all outcomes began at this time point. Variables demonstrating significant differences between groups in baseline characteristics (p < 0.05) and those of clinical relevance were incorporated into a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model to determine their independent associations with study outcomes. All covariates included in the Cox regression models were tested for the proportional hazards assumption using Schoenfeld residuals, and no violations were detected. For the components of the composite endpoint, such as cardiovascular events, graft loss, and all-cause mortality, we additionally applied the Fine-Gray competing risk regression model to account for competing events, estimating subdistribution hazard ratios (sHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Linear regression analyses were performed to identify factors associated with Hb levels, with variables significant in univariate analyses subsequently included in multivariate models. Subgroup analyses were conducted based on baseline characteristics, including age, sex, body mass index (BMI), diabetes status, donor subtype, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Statistical significance was defined as a p-value <0.05. All statistical analyses were conducted using SAS software version 9.4 (SAS Institute Inc.) and R version 4.0 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing).

Ethics statement

This study was approved by the Institutional Review Board of the Kyungpook National University Hospital (No. 2020-11-056). All patients provided written informed consent before participation. This study was conducted in accordance with the guidelines of the 2013 Declaration of Helsinki and the Declaration of Istanbul 2008.

Results

Baseline characteristics

The baseline characteristics of the patient population are detailed in Table 1. The mean age of the cohort was 49.6 ± 11.6 years, with 60.4% (n = 4,530) being male. Patients in the group with higher Hb levels were younger and had a higher proportion of males. This group also exhibited a higher mean BMI but a shorter duration of pre-transplant dialysis. Among immunosuppressive therapies, the rate of antithymocyte globulin induction was highest in the group with the lowest Hb levels, whereas the type of maintenance immunosuppressant did not significantly differ between groups. The prevalence of hypertension was greatest among patients with Hb levels ≥13 g/dL, while the prevalence of diabetes and cardiovascular disease was highest in the Hb <10 g/dL group. Furthermore, the proportion of living donor KT was highest in the Hb ≥13 g/dL group, whereas deceased donor KT was most common in the Hb <10 g/dL group.

Baseline characteristics

Association between hemoglobin levels and outcomes

The entire study cohort was followed for a mean of 3.02 ± 1.99 years. The relationship between Hb levels and clinical outcomes was assessed using Cox regression analyses with restricted cubic splines (Fig. 2). Lower Hb levels were associated with a significantly increased risk of composite events, graft loss, and all-cause mortality.

Figure 2.

Associations between hemoglobin levels and the risk of (A) the composite outcome, (B) cardiovascular events, (C) graft loss, and (D) all-cause mortality evaluated using Cox regression analyses with restricted cubic splines.

Lower hemoglobin levels were associated with increased risks of the composite outcome, graft loss, and all-cause mortality. The line in the graph represents the estimated hazard ratio (HR), and the gray area represents the 95% confidence interval. Histograms indicate the patient distribution by hemoglobin level.

KT, kidney transplantationt.

The occurrence of these outcomes, stratified by Hb groups, is summarized in Table 2. Patients with Hb <10 g/dL exhibited the highest rates of graft loss and all-cause mortality, whereas those with Hb ≥13 g/dL demonstrated the lowest rates for these outcomes. Similarly, the composite outcome was significantly more prevalent in the Hb <10 g/dL group. Kaplan-Meier survival curves (Fig. 3) revealed that patients in the lowest Hb group had markedly reduced survival across all endpoints, including composite events, cardiovascular outcomes, graft loss, and all-cause mortality (log-rank p < 0.05 for all).

Clinical outcomes according to hemoglobin levels

Figure 3.

Kaplan-Meier curves for (A) the composite outcome, (B) cardiovascular events, (C) graft loss, and (D) all-cause mortality, stratified by hemoglobin levels.

The hemoglobin <10 g/dL group showed significantly lower survival rates across all endpoints. Log-rank p-values were <0.001 for the composite outcome (A), 0.005 for cardiovascular events (B), <0.001 for graft loss (C), and <0.001 all-cause mortality for (D).

In multivariate Cox regression models, the Hb <10 g/dL group exhibited a consistently elevated risk for the composite outcome compared with the reference group (model 4: adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 3.16; 95% CI, 2.05–4.87; p < 0.001) (Table 3, Fig. 4A). This group also displayed significantly higher risks for individual components of the composite outcome, including cardiovascular events, graft loss, and all-cause mortality, even after adjustment for multiple confounders (all p < 0.05) (Fig. 4BD; Supplementary Tables 13, available online). Cumulative incidence curves derived from the Fine-Gray competing risk analysis are presented in Supplementary Fig. 1 (available online). Patients with Hb <10 g/dL showed the highest cumulative incidence of cardiovascular events, graft loss, and all-cause mortality throughout follow-up. Notably, in Fine-Gray competing risk regression, patients with Hb ≥13 g/dL had a significantly reduced risk of all-cause mortality compared with the reference group (adjusted sHR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.22–0.90; p = 0.02) (Fig. 4D; Supplementary Table 3 and Supplementary Fig. 1C, available online).

Cox regression analysis for composite outcomes

Figure 4.

Associations between hemoglobin levels and the risk of (A) the composite outcome, (B) cardiovascular events, (C) graft loss, and (D) all-cause mortality, illustrated using HRs from Cox regression models and subdistribution HRs from Fine-Gray competing risk analyses.

The hemoglobin <10 g/dL group demonstrated significantly higher risks for all endpoints, whereas the hemoglobin ≥13 g/dL group had a reduced risk of all-cause mortality compared with the reference group. Bars indicate point estimates of the HR, and vertical lines represent 95% confidence intervals. Model 1: unadjusted. Model 2: adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, hypertension, and tumor. Model 3: adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, hypertension, tumor, dialysis vintage, donor type, and induction immunosuppressant. Model 4: adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, hypertension, tumor, dialysis vintage, donor type, induction immunosuppressant, serum albumin, creatinine, calcium, phosphate, donor age, and donor hypertension.

HR, hazard ratios; KT, kidney transplantationt.

Factors associated with hemoglobin

The factors associated with Hb levels are summarized in Table 4. In the multivariate linear regression analysis, BMI, hypertension, and serum albumin were positively correlated with Hb levels (all p < 0.05). In contrast, Hb levels were negatively associated with age, female sex, mismatched human leukocyte antigen number, serum creatinine, and deceased donor KT (all p < 0.05). Additionally, antithymocyte globulin induction demonstrated a borderline negative correlation with Hb levels (p = 0.05).

Factors associated with hemoglobin levels in a linear regression model

Subgroup analysis of composite outcomes

The risks of composite outcomes were evaluated across different Hb groups, stratified by age, sex, BMI, diabetes status, donor type, and eGFR. A consistent relationship was observed between Hb levels and composite outcomes in all subgroups. Specifically, an Hb level <10 g/dL was identified as an independent risk factor for adverse outcomes (Fig. 5). Conversely, Hb levels ≥13 g/dL were not associated with an increased risk of composite outcomes compared with the reference group.

Figure 5.

Forest plot showing the association between hemoglobin levels and the risk of composite outcomes across subgroups.

The hemoglobin level <10 g/dL group consistently showed an increased risk of composite outcomes in all subgroups. The p-values test the consistency of effects across subgroup differences. G1 refers to the group with hemoglobin levels <10 g/dL. G2 refers to the group with hemoglobin levels of 10 to <11 g/dL. G3 refers to the group with hemoglobin levels of 11 to <12 g/dL. G4 refers to the group with hemoglobin levels of 12 to <13 g/dL. G5 refers to the group with hemoglobin levels ≥13 g/dL.

BMI, body mass index; CI, confidence interval; DM, diabetes mellitus; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; HR, hazard ratio.

Discussion

This nationwide prospective cohort study demonstrated that early posttransplant Hb levels independently predict long-term clinical outcomes in KTRs. Specifically, Hb levels below 10 g/dL were significantly associated with adverse outcomes, including increased mortality, cardiovascular events, and graft failure. Conversely, higher Hb levels exceeding 13 g/dL showed an association with lower mortality, suggesting a potentially favorable survival outcome. These findings underscore the critical role of early posttransplant Hb levels in determining the long-term prognosis of KTRs and highlight the necessity of careful monitoring during the early posttransplant period.

Prior investigations into the relationship between posttransplant Hb levels and clinical outcomes have yielded inconsistent results. While anemia is widely acknowledged as a detrimental factor, the specific prognostic implications of varying Hb levels remain inconclusive. For instance, Moore et al. [16] identified an association between lower Hb levels and graft loss in a large UK cohort; however, this study did not observe a significant relationship between Hb levels and mortality, contrasting with the findings of the present study. Similarly, a large French cohort study reported that posttransplant anemia was independently associated with increased mortality but not graft survival [10]. These discrepancies may reflect differences in patient demographics, such as race and donor type, as well as variations in immunosuppressive regimens and other potential confounders. Compared to these studies, our analysis, which included a large and well-characterized cohort of recently transplanted KTRs, demonstrated that Hb levels <10 g/dL were consistently associated with impaired patient and graft survival, even after adjusting for multiple confounders.

However, low Hb levels may also reflect underlying graft dysfunction, malnutrition, or chronic inflammation rather than representing a purely modifiable predictor. Although serum creatinine and albumin were included in our models, residual confounding from unmeasured biological factors may persist. Therefore, the observed association between low Hb levels and adverse outcomes should be interpreted with caution, recognizing that Hb may serve as an integrated marker of overall systemic and graft health.

Cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of death among KTRs, with anemia recognized as a major contributor to cardiovascular complications [17]. Although the detrimental effects of anemia in chronic kidney disease are well established, and therapeutic targets are defined, the relationship between anemia and cardiovascular outcomes in KTRs remains insufficiently understood. In this study, multivariate analysis of a large cohort revealed that mild anemia (Hb 10–12 g/dL) was not associated with an elevated risk of cardiovascular events. In contrast, severe anemia (Hb <10 g/dL) emerged as an independent risk factor for such events. This finding aligns with the work of Rigatto et al. [18], who identified anemia as an independent risk factor for congestive heart failure in KTRs. Anemia imposes chronic hemodynamic stress, contributing to ventricular hypertrophy and cardiac cavity enlargement [18]. Given the high prevalence of cardiovascular complications in this population and the modifiable nature of Hb levels, regular monitoring and comprehensive management of anemia in KTRs are essential to mitigate associated risks.

Studies examining the relationship between posttransplant anemia and mortality have yielded inconsistent results. A prospective cohort study reported that anemia was associated with an increased risk of mortality during a 4-year follow-up period following KT [19]. Similarly, a retrospective study demonstrated that each 1 g/dL increase in Hb level was associated with an 18% reduction in mortality risk [20]. In contrast, other prospective and retrospective studies failed to establish a significant association between posttransplant anemia and mortality [14,21,22]. The pathophysiological mechanisms underlying the potential association between anemia and mortality may involve increased cardiovascular risk due to heightened cardiac workload, leading to left ventricular hypertrophy and congestive heart failure—both of which are linked to elevated mortality [23,24]. Moreover, reduced oxygen-carrying capacity in anemic patients may result in tissue hypoxia, potentially triggering fatal events such as myocardial infarction or stroke. These mechanisms underscore the plausibility of anemia as a contributing factor to mortality. In the present study, mortality was consistently higher among patients with Hb levels <10 g/dL. The variability in findings across studies may be explained by differences in anemia severity [25,26]. Specifically, this study observed increased mortality in patients with severe anemia (Hb levels <10 g/dL), while mild anemia (Hb levels between 10 and 12 g/dL) did not demonstrate a significant association with mortality.

The consistent association between Hb <10 g/dL and adverse outcomes across subgroups suggests that the prognostic significance of early posttransplant anemia is robust and not limited to demographic or clinical profiles. Although differences in age, sex, BMI, or donor type influence baseline Hb levels, these factors did not appear to modify the relationship between severe anemia and long-term outcomes. This underscores the importance of early anemia surveillance and intervention in all KTRs, regardless of individual characteristics or donor-related factors.

The implications of elevated Hb levels in KTRs have not been extensively investigated. A cohort study reported that increasing Hb levels beyond 12.5 g/dL through erythropoietin treatment was associated with higher mortality rates in KTRs [27]. However, two randomized controlled trials assessing the use of erythropoietin-stimulating agents to manage Hb levels indicated beneficial effects on allograft function. One trial found that maintaining Hb levels of 13–15 g/dL with erythropoietin significantly reduced the progression of chronic allograft nephropathy and improved allograft survival compared to Hb levels of 10.5–11.5 g/dL [7]. Another trial showed that targeting Hb levels of 12.5–13.5 g/dL slowed renal function decline over a 3-year period, suggesting that moderate Hb control may confer long-term benefits for graft function [28]. Our study contributes additional evidence, indicating that elevated Hb levels may improve patient survival. Specifically, patients with Hb levels above 13 g/dL consistently exhibited reduced mortality across all analytical models. These findings align with a recent study on anemia correction in KTRs, which reported improvements in cardiac index, further supporting the potential benefits of optimized Hb levels for both renal function and patient survival [29]. Whether these outcomes reflect a protective effect of high Hb levels or are influenced by factors such as nutritional status or unmeasured variables warrants further investigation.

Decreased Hb levels in the early posttransplant period can adversely affect graft function due to decreased oxygen delivery to the transplanted kidney. Anemia compromises the oxygen-carrying capacity of the blood, thereby diminishing the efficiency of oxygen transport to tissues, including the graft. Given the kidneys’ high sensitivity to hypoxia, insufficient oxygenation can result in ischemic damage to kidney tissue [30]. This ischemic injury may lead to tubular necrosis, interstitial fibrosis, and, over time, chronic allograft dysfunction [3032]. Furthermore, anemia during the early posttransplant period is associated with an increased risk of graft dysfunction, including posttransplant hypertension and calcineurin inhibitor toxicity. These factors may create a self-perpetuating cycle of reduced tissue oxygenation and impaired graft recovery, which accelerates graft deterioration [3335]. Therefore, the observed association between low posttransplant Hb levels and an increased risk of graft loss in this study underscores the critical role of maintaining adequate oxygenation for graft function. Further studies are warranted to elucidate the precise pathophysiological mechanisms by which Hb levels influence graft outcomes.

The key strength of this study lies in its identification of the relationship between Hb levels and various clinical outcomes within a large, prospective KT cohort. However, several limitations should be acknowledged. Given the observational nature of this study, the associations identified between posttransplant Hb levels and subsequent clinical outcomes should not be interpreted as a causal relationship. Despite extensive multivariable adjustment, the possibility of unmeasured confounding cannot be excluded. Therefore, the observed associations should be interpreted with caution, and future prospective or interventional studies are warranted to validate these findings. Second, although the reference range for normal Hb levels varies by sex, a uniform threshold was applied in this study for outcome comparisons. This approach was taken because the study aimed to explore the relationship between Hb levels and clinical prognosis rather than solely differentiate between anemic and non-anemic patients. Importantly, subgroup analyses revealed that Hb levels below 10 g/dL were associated with adverse outcomes in both sexes, with no significant sex-based differences observed. Third, due to data limitations, we were unable to account for erythropoiesis-stimulating agent use, iron replacement therapy, or detailed iron indices. The absence of these parameters may have limited our ability to fully adjust for differences in iron status and anemia management. In addition, the analysis relied on a single Hb measurement obtained 6 months after KT, without considering longitudinal Hb variability. While this time point was selected to reflect the early posttransplant stabilization phase, it remains possible that changes in Hb over time could have influenced the outcomes. Lastly, the KOTRY dataset anonymized the center identifier, which prevented us from assessing inter-center variability. This limitation may have reduced our ability to account for center-level effects in the analysis.

In conclusion, early posttransplant Hb levels were significantly associated with clinical outcomes in KTRs. Severe anemia, defined as Hb levels below 10 g/dL, was significantly associated with increased risks of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular events, and graft loss. Conversely, higher Hb levels, particularly those above 13 g/dL, were associated with more favorable patient survival. Further prospective and randomized controlled trials are warranted to determine whether interventions targeting posttransplant anemia can improve long-term outcomes in KTRs.

Notes

Additional information

The Korean Organ Transplantation Registry Study Group

Ji Yoon Choi1, Cheol Woong Jung2, Jun Young Lee3, Yeong Hoon Kim4, Joong Kyung Kim5, Eun Jeoung Ko6, Sik Lee7, Yeon Ho Park8, Seok Hui Kang9, Tae Hyun Ban10, Sang Heon Song11, Seung Hwan Song12, Ho Sik Shin13, Byung Ha Chung14, Hye Eun Yoon15, Ki-Ryang Na16, Dong Ryeol Lee17, Dong Won Lee18, Jieun Oh19, Su Woong Jung20, Yu Ho Lee21, Hyejin Mo22, Jeong-Hoon Lee23, Jin Seok Jeon24, Sang Youb Han25, Jin Sug Kim26, Jong Soo Lee27, Man Ki Ju28, Jong Cheol Jeong29, Soo Jin Na Choi30, Sung Shin31, Seungyeup Han32, Kyu Ha Huh33, Seun Deuk Hwang34, Sangil Min35, Young Soo Chung36, Young Joo Kwon37

1Department of Surgery, Hanyang University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea; 2Department of Surgery, Korea University Anam Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea; 3Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, Wonju Severance Christian Hospital, Yonsei University Wonju College of Medicine, Wonju, Republic of Korea; 4Department of Internal Medicine, Inje University Busan Paik Hospital, Busan, Republic of Korea; 5Department of Internal Medicine, Bongseng Memorial Hospital, Busan, Republic of Korea; 6Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, Bucheon St. Mary’s Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea; 7Department of Internal Medicine, Jeonbuk National University Hospital, Jeonju, Republic of Korea; 8Department of Surgery, Gil Medical Center, Gachon University College of Medicine, Incheon, Republic of Korea; 9Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, Yeungnam University Hospital, Daegu, Republic of Korea; 10Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, Eunpyeong St. Mary’s Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea; 11Department of Internal Medicine, Pusan National University Hospital, Busan, Republic of Korea; 12Department of Surgery, Ewha Womans University Seoul Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea; 13Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, Kosin University College of Medicine, Busan, Republic of Korea; 14Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul St. Mary’s Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea; 15Department of Internal Medicine, Incheon St. Mary’s Hospital, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Republic of Korea; 16Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, Chungnam National University Hospital, Daejeon, Republic of Korea; 17Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, Maryknoll Medical Center, Busan, Republic of Korea; 18Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, Pusan National University School of Medicine, Busan, Republic of Korea; 19Department of Internal Medicine, Kangdong Sacred Heart Hospital, Hallym University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea; 20Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea; 21Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, CHA Bundang Medical Center, CHA University, Seongnam, Republic of Korea; 22Department of Surgery, SMG-SNU Boramae Medical Center, Seoul, Republic of Korea; 23Department of Surgery, Myongji Hospital, Goyang, Republic of Korea; 24Department of Internal Medicine, Soonchunhyang University Seoul Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea; 25Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, Inje University Ilsan Paik Hospital, Goyang, Republic of Korea; 26Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, Kyung Hee University Hospital, Kyung Hee University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea; 27Department of Internal Medicine, Ulsan University Hospital, Ulsan, Republic of Korea; 28Department of Surgery, Gangnam Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea; 29Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam, Republic of Korea; 30Department of Surgery, Chonnam National University Medical School, Gwangju, Republic of Korea; 31Department of Surgery, Asan Medical Center, Seoul, Republic of Korea; 32Department of Internal Medicine, Keimyung University School of Medicine, Daegu, Republic of Korea; 33Department of Transplantation Surgery, Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea; 34Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, Inha University Hospital, Inha University of Korea College of Medicine, Incheon, Republic of Korea; 35Department of Surgery, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea; 36Department of Surgery, Dong-A University College of Medicine, Busan, Republic of Korea; 37Division of Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, Korea University Guro Hospital, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul, Republic of Korea

Conflicts of interest

Chan-Duck Kim is an Associate Editor and Tae Hyun Ban is a Deputy Editor of Kidney Research and Clinical Practice and were not involved in the review process of this article. All authors have no other conflicts of interest to declare .

Funding

This research was supported by a grant of the Korea Health Technology R&D Project through the Korea Health Industry Development Institute (KHIDI), funded by the Ministry of Health & Welfare, Republic of Korea (grant number: RS-2022-KH130593, RS-2025-02303987, RS-2025-25410994). This research was supported by the National Institute of Health (NIH) research project (2014-ER6301-00, 2014-ER6301-01, 2014-ER6301-02, 2017-ER6301-00, 2017-ER6301-01, 2017-ER6301-02, 2020-ER7201-00, 2020-ER7201-01).

Data sharing statement

The data presented in this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. The data are not publicly available due to their containing information that could compromise the privacy of research participants.

Authors’ contributions

Conceptualization, Methodology: YHJ, JHL, JHC

Data curation: JBP, JWP, SHL, JY, MSK, YJO, JEY

Formal analysis: YJS

Funding acquisition: JY, JHL, JHC

Project administration, Supervision: HYJ, SHP, CDK, YLK

Writing–original draft: MGK, YHJ

Writing–review & editing: JHL, JHC

All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Article information Continued

Figure 1.

Flowchart of kidney transplant recipients stratified into five groups based on hemoglobin (Hb) levels (g/dL).

KOTRY, Korean Organ Transplantation Registry; KT, kidney transplantationt.

Figure 2.

Associations between hemoglobin levels and the risk of (A) the composite outcome, (B) cardiovascular events, (C) graft loss, and (D) all-cause mortality evaluated using Cox regression analyses with restricted cubic splines.

Lower hemoglobin levels were associated with increased risks of the composite outcome, graft loss, and all-cause mortality. The line in the graph represents the estimated hazard ratio (HR), and the gray area represents the 95% confidence interval. Histograms indicate the patient distribution by hemoglobin level.

KT, kidney transplantationt.

Figure 3.

Kaplan-Meier curves for (A) the composite outcome, (B) cardiovascular events, (C) graft loss, and (D) all-cause mortality, stratified by hemoglobin levels.

The hemoglobin <10 g/dL group showed significantly lower survival rates across all endpoints. Log-rank p-values were <0.001 for the composite outcome (A), 0.005 for cardiovascular events (B), <0.001 for graft loss (C), and <0.001 all-cause mortality for (D).

Figure 4.

Associations between hemoglobin levels and the risk of (A) the composite outcome, (B) cardiovascular events, (C) graft loss, and (D) all-cause mortality, illustrated using HRs from Cox regression models and subdistribution HRs from Fine-Gray competing risk analyses.

The hemoglobin <10 g/dL group demonstrated significantly higher risks for all endpoints, whereas the hemoglobin ≥13 g/dL group had a reduced risk of all-cause mortality compared with the reference group. Bars indicate point estimates of the HR, and vertical lines represent 95% confidence intervals. Model 1: unadjusted. Model 2: adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, hypertension, and tumor. Model 3: adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, hypertension, tumor, dialysis vintage, donor type, and induction immunosuppressant. Model 4: adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, hypertension, tumor, dialysis vintage, donor type, induction immunosuppressant, serum albumin, creatinine, calcium, phosphate, donor age, and donor hypertension.

HR, hazard ratios; KT, kidney transplantationt.

Figure 5.

Forest plot showing the association between hemoglobin levels and the risk of composite outcomes across subgroups.

The hemoglobin level <10 g/dL group consistently showed an increased risk of composite outcomes in all subgroups. The p-values test the consistency of effects across subgroup differences. G1 refers to the group with hemoglobin levels <10 g/dL. G2 refers to the group with hemoglobin levels of 10 to <11 g/dL. G3 refers to the group with hemoglobin levels of 11 to <12 g/dL. G4 refers to the group with hemoglobin levels of 12 to <13 g/dL. G5 refers to the group with hemoglobin levels ≥13 g/dL.

BMI, body mass index; CI, confidence interval; DM, diabetes mellitus; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; HR, hazard ratio.

Table 1.

Baseline characteristics

Characteristic Hemoglobin group (g/dL)
<10.0 10.0–10.9 11.0–11.9 12.0–12.9 ≥13.0 p-value
No. of patients 373 605 1,225 1,733 3,565
Age (yr) 51.7 ± 12.5 51.0 ± 12.2 51.0 ± 12.0 50.2 ± 11.6 48.4 ± 11.0 <0.001
Male sex 152 (40.8) 224 (37.0) 515 (42.0) 931 (53.7) 2,708 (76.0) <0.001
Body mass index (kg/m2) 22.6 ± 3.5 22.8 ± 3.9 22.8 ± 3.7 23.1 ± 3.5 23.5 ± 3.6 <0.001
Dialysis vintage before KT (mo) 62.5 ± 59.9 58.9 ± 66.0 57.9 ± 63.6 49.4 ± 62.6 48.6 ± 61.1 <0.001
Primary renal disease 0.002
 Diabetes mellitus 118 (31.6) 157 (26.0) 277 (22.6) 449 (25.9) 892 (25.0)
 Hypertension 48 (12.9) 90 (14.9) 177 (14.4) 256 (14.8) 567 (15.9)
 Glomerulonephritis 94 (25.2) 183 (30.2) 389 (31.8) 533 (30.8) 1,174 (32.9)
 Others 113 (30.3) 175 (28.9) 382 (31.2) 495 (28.6) 932 (26.1)
Desensitization 95 (25.5) 144 (23.8) 296 (24.2) 428 (24.7) 850 (23.8) 0.93
HLA mismatch number 3.8 ± 1.7 3.5 ± 1.8 3.4 ± 1.8 3.4 ± 1.8 3.2 ± 1.8 <0.001
Induction immunosuppressants
 Basiliximab 262 (70.2) 470 (77.7) 917 (74.9) 1,347 (77.7) 2,923 (82.0) <0.001
 Antithymocyte globulin 129 (34.6) 149 (24.6) 335 (27.3) 416 (24.0) 682 (19.1) <0.001
Maintenance immunosuppressants
 Tacrolimus 360 (96.5) 591 (97.7) 1,187 (96.9) 1,681 (97.0) 3,476 (97.5) 0.56
 Mycophenolate 342 (91.7) 559 (92.4) 1,148 (93.7) 1,632 (94.2) 3,349 (93.9) 0.26
 Corticosteroid 370 (99.2) 595 (98.3) 1,204 (98.3) 1,711 (98.7) 3,515 (98.6) 0.68
 Sirolimus 4 (1.1) 3 (0.5) 7 (0.6) 12 (0.7) 17 (0.5) 0.61
Dosage of immunosuppressants at 6 mo (mg)
 Tacrolimus 4.6 ± 2.8 4.5 ± 2.4 4.3 ± 2.4 4.3 ± 2.4 4.2 ± 2.4 0.02
 Mycophenolate 1,015.1 ± 354.4 1,011.4 ± 353.9 1,042.0 ± 375.5 1,024.3 ± 364.2 1,022.5 ± 356.3 0.51
 Corticosteroid 6.5 ± 3.6 6.7 ± 3.1 6.7 ± 3.5 6.8 ± 3.7 6.7 ± 3.3 0.72
Comorbid conditions
 Hypertension 319 (85.5) 527 (87.1) 1,060 (86.5) 1,563 (90.2) 3,277 (91.9) <0.001
 Diabetes mellitus 147 (39.4) 188 (31.1) 374 (30.5) 569 (32.8) 1,109 (31.1) 0.01
 Cardiovascular disease 61 (16.4) 72 (11.9) 160 (13.1) 183 (10.6) 426 (11.9) 0.02
 Tumor 30 (8.0) 43 (7.1) 95 (7.8) 145 (8.4) 183 (5.1) <0.001
Laboratory data
 Hemoglobin (g/dL) 9.1 ± 0.8 10.5 ± 0.3 11.5 ± 0.3 12.5 ± 0.3 14.4 ± 1.1 <0.001
 Albumin (g/dL) 4.0 ± 0.5 3.9 ± 0.5 4.0 ± 0.5 4.0 ± 0.5 4.0 ± 0.5 0.004
 Calcium (mg/dL) 9.1 ± 1.0 9.0 ± 1.0 9.0 ± 1.1 8.9 ± 1.0 9.0 ± 0.9 0.13
 Phosphate (mg/dL) 4.9 ± 1.5 5.0 ± 2.7 5.1 ± 1.5 5.1 ± 1.5 5.2 ± 1.6 <0.001
 Creatinine (mg/dL) 1.2 ± 0.5 1.2 ± 0.7 1.2 ± 0.7 1.2 ± 0.7 1.2 ± 0.8 0.14
 Donor age (yr) 54.1 ± 12.2 52.9 ± 11.3 50.5 ± 12.2 48.2 ± 12.3 45.0 ± 12.7 <0.001
 Donor sex, male 143 (38.3) 237 (39.2) 532 (43.5) 837 (48.3) 1,848 (51.9) <0.001
 Donor body mass index (kg/m2) 23.7 ± 3.0 24.0 ± 3.2 24.1 ± 3.4 24.1 ± 3.4 24.0 ± 3.4 0.24
 Donor comorbid conditions
  Hypertension 80 (21.4) 148 (24.5) 252 (20.6) 260 (15.0) 424 (11.9) <0.001
  Diabetes mellitus 43 (11.5) 51 (8.4) 80 (6.5) 62 (3.6) 120 (3.4) <0.001
  Cardiovascular disease 10 (2.7) 18 (3.0) 28 (2.3) 32 (1.8) 42 (1.2) 0.003
 Transplantation type <0.001
  Living-related 177 (47.5) 354 (58.5) 730 (59.6) 1,163 (67.1) 2,506 (70.3)
  Deceased 196 (52.5) 251 (41.5) 495 (40.4) 570 (32.9) 1,059 (29.7)

Data are expressed as mean ± standard deviation or number (%).

KT, kidney transplantationt; HLA, human leukocyte antigen.

Table 2.

Clinical outcomes according to hemoglobin levels

Variable Hemoglobin group (g/dL) p-value
<10.0 (n = 373) 10.0–10.9 (n = 605) 11.0–11.9 (n = 1,225) 12.0–12.9 (n = 1,733) ≥13.0 (n = 3,565)
Cardiovascular event 34 (9.1) 32 (5.3) 64 (5.2) 108 (6.2) 232 (6.5) 0.07
Graft loss 50 (13.4) 27 (4.5) 26 (2.1) 32 (1.9) 65 (1.8) <0.001
All-cause mortality 34 (9.1) 15 (2.5) 14 (1.1) 28 (1.6) 31 (0.9) <0.001
Composite outcome 75 (20.1) 51 (8.4) 83 (6.8) 136 (7.8) 268 (7.5) <0.001

Data are expressed as number (%).

Table 3.

Cox regression analysis for composite outcomes

Hemoglobin group (g/dL) Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4
HR (95% CI) p-value aHR (95% CI) p-value aHR (95% CI) p-value aHR (95% CI) p-value
<10.0 3.14 (2.19–4.49) <0.001 3.11 (2.16–4.47) <0.001 3.08 (2.08–4.57) <0.001 3.16 (2.05–4.87) <0.001
10.0–10.9 1.04 (0.68–1.58) 0.87 1.08 (0.71–1.65) 0.73 1.04 (0.65–1.65) 0.88 1.07 (0.65–1.77) 0.79
11.0–11.9 0.96 (0.69–1.34) 0.81 1.00 (0.71–1.39) 0.98 1.00 (0.70–1.44) >0.99 1.02 (0.69–1.50) 0.93
12.0–12.9 Reference Reference Reference Reference
≥13.0 1.06 (0.82–1.36) 0.679 1.02 (0.79–1.32) 0.89 1.03 (0.78–1.37) 0.84 1.12 (0.82–1.52) 0.47

aHR, adjusted hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio.

Model 1: unadjusted. Model 2: adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, hypertension, and tumor. Model 3: adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, hypertension, tumor, dialysis vintage, donor type, and induction immunosuppressant. Model 4: adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, hypertension, tumor, dialysis vintage, donor type, induction immunosuppressant, serum albumin, creatinine, calcium, phosphate, donor age, and donor hypertension.

Table 4.

Factors associated with hemoglobin levels in a linear regression model

Factor Univariate Multivariate
B (SE) β p-value B (SE) β p-value
Age –0.02 (0.002) –0.12 <0.001 –0.02 (0.002) –0.12 <0.001
Female sex –1.21 (0.040) –0.33 <0.001 –1.18 (0.050) –0.32 <0.001
Body mass index 0.04 (0.010) 0.09 <0.001 0.02 (0.010) 0.03 0.03
Dialysis vintage –0.002 (0.000) –0.053 <0.001 0.002 (0.000) 0.059 <0.001
No. of HLA mismatch –0.07 (0.010) –0.07 <0.001 –0.08 (0.010) –0.08 <0.001
ATG induction (ref, basiliximab) –0.40 (0.050) –0.09 <0.001 –0.11 (0.060) –0.03 0.05
Hypertension 0.47 (0.070) 0.08 <0.001 0.44 (0.080) 0.07 <0.001
Diabetes mellitus –0.06 (0.050) –0.01 0.21
Albumin 0.15 (0.040) 0.04 <0.001 0.14 (0.050) 0.04 0.002
Creatinine –0.04 (0.010) –0.04 <0.001 –0.07 (0.010) –0.07 <0.001
Transplantation type (ref, living donor) –0.38 (0.040) –0.10 <0.001 –0.55 (0.060) –0.15 <0.001
Mycophenolate <0.001 (0.000) –0.002 0.87
Sirolimus –0.46 (0.280) –0.02 0.09

ATG, antithymocyte globulin; B, unstandardized regression coefficient; β, standardized coefficient; HLA, human leukocyte antigen; ref, reference; SE, standard error.